Quick summary of February 2016 State Revenue Forecast

The Office of Economic Analysis presented its latest projections of the state's economy and revenue income this week. The team of Mark McMullen and Josh Lehner were upbeat about the near term and cautious about the longer term (economists always have another "hand").

• The U.S. economy is still in expansion; initial unemployment claims are trending sharply down, but industrial production is weak.
• In Oregon, non-farm employment is growing, which translates into stronger and broad-based income gains. Employment in most regions is growing, and this is pulling workers back into the labor force. Personal income tax collections remain healthy, while corporate taxes are turning downward (including capital gains).
• Oregon weekly Powerball sales surged, as did tobacco sales (likely an indication of more dispensable income - or the billion dollar jackpot).
• Since the December forecast, net general fund resources are up $36 million (0.2 percent), and lottery resources are up $24.8 million.
• There is still no personal kicker projected for 2017. On the other hand (economist-talk), $34.3 million in corporate tax revenue is projected to be dedicated to K-12 education spending in 2017-19.
• A bit of good news for counties: video lottery sales surged. As a consequence, AOC is lobbying for an upward adjustment to the 2015-17 allocation to counties of economic development resources of $1,753 million.

HB 4036-Renewable Portfolio Standard-Support with Amendments

HB 4036 is the product of a compromise between the private utilities and the environmental community. The bill received a public hearing on Tuesday and Thursday last week. There were plenty of people testifying on both sides of the issue. AOC, along with the Community Renewable Energy Association (CREA), is attempting to amend the bill so that the eight percent community renewable goal becomes a requirement. Efforts are ongoing to introduce this amendment on the House side but at this time it appears as if AOC/CREA will have to get it introduced on the Senate side. HB 4036 passed the House Energy and Environment Committee February 11 and will head to the House floor.

SB 1563-Low Income Onsite Septic Loan Program-Support with Amendments

SB 1563-1 dash 1 amendments create an RFP program that enables DEQ to allow a third party lender to provide loans for repair/replacement of onsite septic systems or, if possible, connection to city sewer systems. The bill is scheduled to receive a hearing today. 

SB 1517-Oregon Farm Bureau Wetlands Bill-Support with Amendments

SB 1517-3 received a public hearing last week. Commissioners Labhart (Tillamook) and Smith (Curry) testified in favor of the bill. The dash 3 amendments would provide counties a level of oversight for the creation of wetlands in Exclusive Farm Use (EFU) lands. The bill also changes the liability requirements on wetlands creation and increases the removal/fill limits. The hearing was controversial and had to be carried over to Thursday afternoon. At this time the Farm Bureau is negotiating with the Governor's office to try to find a compromise that both sides can agree upon. The bill is scheduled to receive a hearing today.

Flood Plain Fact Sheets

2016 TGM Pre-Application Packet Now Available
The Transportation Grant Management Pre-Application packets have been mailed to all Oregon jurisdictions, tribes, and eligible special districts on February 1st.  Read more...

The e-cigarette tax is not positioned to move in the 2016 legislative session, as was originally suspected, despite some optimism from a few legislators. The conversation has gotten some traction however, and is likely to come back in 2017.

The tobacco retail licensure bill has gotten even more contentious. It is unclear whether there is support in the committee for the bill without adding an amendment to allow sampling in vape shops; however, if the amendment is adopted, even the proponents of the bill will pull their support. So at this point, it is unclear whether this bill is likely to move or not. Following the work session we will have more information.

House Bill 4040, which ratifies the Oregon Fish & Wildlife Commission decision to delist the Gray Wolf (canis lupus) from the State Endangered Species Act and is now under threat of appeal, was heard by the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee last Wednesday and sent to the House floor as amended the following Tuesday. Witnesses, both for and against, filled the room. Although delisted only on the eastside under the federal ESA, the gray wolf retains significant protections under the Oregon Wolf Conservation and Management Plan, which received support from ranchers and producers. The amended version removed a prohibition against relisting the gray wolf until its numbers declined to a point where Chair Brad Witt explained that it would be virtually impossible to relist. The amendments were a compromise agreed to by all parties. Moreover, the committee amended a bill to increase civil penalties for unlawful taking or killing wildlife ( HB 4046) by adding the gray wolf to the list of species covered. HB 4046 was sent to the House floor with a do-pass recommendation.

The second natural resources bill to see action is a work product of Wheeler County Judge Chris Perry. House Bill 4007 would authorize establishment of a rangeland fire protection association formed by rangeland owners or approved by a county governing body as a cost-neutral part of the county emergency management program. Judge Perry was introduced to the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee at the Tuesday hearing by State Representative Greg Smith. Judge Perry explained that the county had done its best to control rangeland fires with local volunteers and battered, dangerous equipment for over 20 years. Because of Wheeler County's very high permanent property tax rate of $8.63, he stated that he devised this concept without cost to the taxpayer. State Forester Doug Decker testified that the Department of Forestry is neutral on the bill, but that the approach is reasonable. Committee members commented that the $3,000 to $5,000 start-up costs to the department to provide assistance was a worthwhile investment. The committee quickly scheduled a work session for Thursday, where HB 4007 was sent to the House with a unanimous do-pass recommendation.