Immigration is a very emotive topic within European society and as such I feel it is perhaps best understood objectively using the dynamic social principals of the five stages of the empire model.
By applying this methodology, we create a big picture view of Europe and the Middle East. We have on the one side Europe, which has to be viewed as the old Super Western Christian Empire, and which has been in a legacy state since 1945. During this period, it has managed to exist due to the nuclear umbrella of NATO whilst simultaneously trying to reinvent itself through the formation of the EU. To achieve this, Europe has been created through an unnatural regional formation, rather than through the natural process of demographic expansion and agglomeration that is the historical norm (reference to other blogs of the topic, e.g.,
Europe post a Greek deal and
11 Predictions for the next 10 years: Part II The European project will fracture and break up).
Consequently, Europe is very vulnerable to external forces. To be blunt, it is half pregnant, a union without political unity and the demographics required to create the economic success that then draws the constituent nations together in a common cause. Thus, when challenged by an external event, the risk is that it will in all probability behave according to its constituent national interests creating the political forces that could potentially fracture the union. The immigration crisis is one such external challenge to the EU that has manifested from the process of Middle East expansion.
However, one should not focus on just the symptoms, but rather the underlying cause. In this case, it is quite clear that the Super Islamic Empire is on the rise, bonded by the Islamic meme that allows it to spread far beyond the land of the Arabs. The common thread is that the Islamic nations of the world have all simultaneously undergone a massive demographic expansion that is consistent with regionalisation.
Thus, the wars in the Middle East and across the region should all be viewed as a civil war that defines the very nature of the region's future leadership. ISIS certainly have that vision and are extending their power outside the Middle East, having created a local state power base. As in every similar phase of empire, regional civil wars militarise the society within which they are fought and prepare the dominant party for military expansion once the war is complete. However, in this case, ISIS have started early, partly to gain what they think is the high ground in their leadership challenge and partly because the West is deeply opposed to their existence and hence, they seek revenge to polarise further local support in their favour.
We are now seeing a historical pattern of an old, wealthy, once powerful empire in legacy, that has become complacent on its borders and defence. Conversely, it faces a young, expansive, aggressive rising power on its doorstep. The Romans succumbed to such a threat and were washed away in the West. Later, the Ottoman Empire suffered the same fate at the hands of the Christian powers. So the question has to be: What will Europe do to change this pattern? The one thing that Europeans should be clear about is that placing their heads in the sand is not an option as it will not save Europe from recurrent attacks as in Paris. The underlying cause of the massive demographic expansion in the Middle East, one way or another, will continue to apply enormous pressure to the EU.
The best outcome we can aim toward is the removal of the direct threat from ISIS or the organisation that might follow it, and at the same time help to shape the Middle East into a region that shares similar democratic values as Europe. However, we must not underestimate how difficult such a path will be and that Islamic democracy will not necessarily look like Western democracy for many, many decades.
Meanwhile, the limited integrity of the EU's external borders and, to-date, weak internal border controls between its constituent nations, has made the EU a porous system. This combined with the forced migration of refugees from the Middle Eastern war zone has created a humanitarian and political crisis that seems to become worse day by day. So what are the short- and long-term challenges? In part II we will look at the short-term challenges ahead.
